On Wednesday morning,wife japan massage video sex a tropical storm called Helene just off the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula had just been upgraded to a hurricane — one all but certain to hit Florida on Thursday.
Now is the time when we all love to stare at cones and "spaghetti models" showing potential paths as the storm makes its approach, but right from the jump: Please be careful about how you consume this notoriously misunderstoodinformation.
This Tweet is currently unavailable. It might be loading or has been removed.SEE ALSO: Why it's impossible to forecast the weather too far into the future
According to NOAA, as of 4:00 a.m. ET Wednesday, "There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are expected along the coast of the Florida Big Bend." In graphic form, that looks like this:
NOAA's cone graphic of Tropical Storm Helene showing threats to parts of Mexico and Florida. Credit: NOAA As a reminder, NOAA's cone graphic is a fairly reliable prediction of the range of paths the center of the stormmay take. The cone is not — as it may appear at first glance — a prediction of an ever-widening storm exploding into the inland United States. Severe wind and storm surge can, and probably will, occur outside the cone, and some areas inside the cone will emerge from the storm totally unscathed.
If you're reading this, and it turns out you end up directly in the path of a hurricane, an evacuation order will be hard to miss. At this phase, rather than speculating about whether your specific neighborhood will face the high winds and storm surge that come from a direct hit from a hurricane, in most areas it would be wiser to just heed NOAA's broader warning from Tuesday:
Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally considerable flash flooding across portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday.
Spaghetti models, like the NOAA cone model, visualize mathematical possibilities.
Unlike the cone, they present the actual paths predicted by a collection of computer models, all spilling out like spaghetti from Strega Nona's magical pasta pot. And like the cone, the spaghetti model can be deceptive. All the paths in the spaghetti model are both speculative and contradictions of one another. The actual storm will only follow one path, and it's almost certain that none of the predicted paths in this splatter of noodles will be perfectly predictive.
This Tweet is currently unavailable. It might be loading or has been removed.
The above model, posted online on the personal X account of Clark Evans, who works as a research physical scientist at NOAA, shows a fairly tight collection of paths. The storm appears to be headed to the Big Bend, and looks like it could easily thread the needle between Panama City Beach in the west and Tallahassee in the east — mostly avoiding heavily populated areas. But some paths in the spaghetti model do show the storm hitting those populous areas. If this spaghetti is to be believed, Tampa will not face a direct hit.
Outlier events most often do not come true. But events also don't conform to averages of predictions. Though top weather models can be astonishingly accurate, the weather simply occurs, and its precise schema is, and will always be, totally alien thanks to the incalculable number of tiny natural and man-made factors that contribute to outcomes.
‘Untold Story’ to Be Screened at JANM, Manzanar NHS
The single greatest interview we have ever read in a magazine, and more.
Retirement, Brought to You by Prisons, Inc.
Best Samsung TV deal: Save $300 on 65
Keiro Supports Over 100 Caregivers in San Gabriel Valley
The Tarot of Alejandro Jodorowsky
Webb telescope just snapped direct image of worlds many light
How to protect your mental health while using dating apps
Rare Atom secure ESL Pro League Season 17 spot through Conference Asia
Thwarting a “United Right” in Charlottesville
IEM Rio Major profile: MOUZ
Bluesky restocks Zuckerberg
Two Poems
Amazon Fire 7 Kids tablet deal: $69.99
syrsoN: "I don't give a f*** what people are saying about me; I know what I'm capable of"
NCAA bracket: 3 strangest ways 2025 March Madness winners were picked
A brand new volcanic vent opened up in Yellowstone National Park
Get the new iPad Mini for $100 off at Amazon
Curl Up with a Good Cry
The Norwegians Who Mistook Their Bus Seats for Muslims
Meet Twitter's breakout star of the 2021 Puppy Bowl, Chunky Monkey12 things the internet taught us we've been doing wrong our whole livesQAnon followers believe Trump will be inaugurated as president this monthDavid Dobrik's photo app Dispo relaunched with an ad imagining him as an old manYou can celebrate Groundhog Day with a $80 Cameo from Punxsutawney PhilThe best conspiracy theory podcasts about dangerous misinformationWhen to wear a double mask for protection from a coronavirus infectionTrump left a note for Biden in the White House and the memes write themselvesAntifa.com now redirects to the White House’s website. This doesn’t mean anything.Popeyes has embraced the tendies meme with 'free tendies' after GameStop stock mania Wordle today: The answer and hints for July 25 Apologetic Crowdstrike sends out $10 UberEats vouchers. Some of them don't work. Pixel 9 Pro XL video leak: How does Google’s rumored 3rd phone look next to the Pixel 8 Pro? Bill Clinton has two ant farms, in case you were wondering NYT Strands hints, answers for July 25 Paris 2024 soccer livestream: Watch for free Huge rotting sea creature that washed ashore is horrifyingly turning the water red Eliud Kipchoge Paris 2024 livestream: Watch Men's Marathon for free Trump's big EPA website change should make you furious Canada basketball Paris 2024 livestream: Watch Canada for free
0.1667s , 14343.0078125 kb
Copyright © 2025 Powered by 【wife japan massage video sex】Hurricane Helene: Spaghetti models track the storm’s path,Feature Flash
